Player Prop Picks 3/13

It is my pleasure to present the first Player Prop Sheet to The Armchair Experts. None of these picks are biased and are strictly based off of statistics and knowledge of the NBA and players rhythms. Let’s fucking ride. We’re going 9/9 tonight.

Killian Hayes O 14.5 Points

• Over 5 key players for Pistons are out tonight. Killian will play 34+ minutes tonight while Buddy Hield and Haliburton may possibly be out. This allows him time and room to score tonight. Someone has to score for Detroit. He scored 17 last game in this same situation.  

De’aron Fox U 25.5 Points

• The Bucks have a great defense and holds star players to an average of 23 ppg. He will be meeting Jrue Holiday, who defends points guards better than anyone in the league, as well as having to get through Brook Lopez who limits point guards drives and finishes to the basket. He scored 15 in their last meeting. 

Jayson Tatum O 29.5 Points

• Tatum has hit this line in 4/L4. He also scores in bunches when playing bad defenses. The Rockets have THE worst defense in the league and their should be many opportunities for him to hit this. He scored 38 when they last played this season. However, be aware that the spread is massive and this could be a blowout, limiting his playing time. 

Dillon Brooks U 14.5 Points

• I don’t have to say much for this dude right here. I cannot fucking stand his stupidity and idiocy on and off the court. This bum ass player will never win a championship. He has the loudest mouth in the league right now and has been chirping all of the superstars in the league. He plays Dallas tonight and has only hit this line in 1/L5. Let me say, he hit the over on the one game I hammered his under. Fuck you Dillon Brooks, it’s time to bring the coin back home. He’s talked shit to Luka and Kyrie all this week. I don’t think he can back that up, and I expect them to lock his loud ass up. Either way, there’s no possible way that I would want to put my own money on Dillon Brooks hitting the over. Cash it.

Chris Paul O 10 Assists

• Chris Paul has been averaging 9 assists this season as well as 9 assists vs Golden State throughout his career. However, the Warriors defense is not valid this year at all. I think this is the biggest lock on this page. He’s going to get many opportunities to go over this line, and I expect the game to be close with the absence of KD and Steph back in the lineup for the Warriors. He’s hit this line in 4/L5.

Jaren Jackson O 20.5 Points

• JJJ has been the Grizzlies leading scorer since the absence of Ja Morant. He’s been averaging 21 ppg and almost 19% more shot attempts. He struggled last game, going 25% shooting from the field. However, his free throw attempts per game are now up to about 9 free throws a game. This is 4 more than he was averaging with Ja Morant on the floor. Dallas has one of the worst post presences defensively in the league with Dwight Powell and Christian Wood. I don’t think they’ll be able to hold him off the free throw line and I expect him to bounce back after a rough shooting performance last game. 

Josh Okogie O 1.5 Three’s Made

• One of the main breakout players for the suns this season considering all of the injuries they’ve dealt with, especially Kevin Durant. With KD out tonight with an ankle injury, Okogie will get a lot of minutes. Expect him to play 32+ minutes tonight with a plethora of chances to go over this line considering Golden States defense giving up the 5th most three pointers to opposing teams. He hit 3 last game and played 34 minutes. Expect him to go over this line today. 

Steph Curry O 28.5 Points

• Steph Curry is finally getting his rhythm back after being out for a few months. They play Phoenix tonight and I expect this to be a battle of a game. He’s hit this in 3/L4 games since being injured and has been shooting an average of 12 three pointers per game. He’s going to get his shots up and I expect him to go over this line tonight. 

Tyus Jones O 7.5 Assists

• Tyus has been averaging a little bit over 15 assist attempts since Ja Morant’s absence and is averaging 9 assists through this time period as well. He’s practically running the show offensively and spacing the floor as needed without Ja. He’s hit this in 3/L4 since Ja has been out. They played Dallas 2 days ago, and he hit 10 assists. I really like the over 7.5 here tonight and I expect him to have a strong night in this category.