Player Prop Locks 3/14

Well folks, we had a shitty day yesterday, but I blame all of that on Dillon Brooks. Going 2/9 is only something Dillon Brooks would do and I’m ashamed to be in the same category as his bum ass. Let’s move on and keep fighting today. I don’t think I’ve ever been more confident in a slate of picks.

Shai Gilgeous-Aleexander O 31.5 Points

• Do I have much to say about this one? Absolutely fucking not. Shai is HIM, HIMothy, and the mayor of OKC, that will never change. Who can guard Shai on Brooklyn tonight? Absolutely fucking no one. Who can guard Shai across the entire league? Absolutely fucking no one. Why would anyone put money on this man going under? No fucking clue. I’m only giving stats because I have to. He’s hit this in his last 5 games. Hammer the over and thank me tomorrow. 

Kelly Oubre O 21 Points

• It seems that every time I bet on Kelly Oubre to go over, he goes under. I then take a break for 3 games and he goes over in every single one. I’ve had enough of this bullshit. He’s hit this in 3/L5 and I can’t see myself ever taking his under. They played Cleveland two nights ago and he went for 27. Give me the over and all of my coin back that I’ve lost on this inconsistent bum. 

Jalen Williams (J-DUB) O 3 Assists

• ROOKIE OF THE YEAR! This man continues to impress me each and every night. The guy is just an all around great basketball player. He’s been on an insane scoring streak averaging 20 ppg over the last 5 games. However, I don’t see this lasting too much longer. Since he’s been piling on the points, he’s also been passing the ball tremendously. Averaging 5 assists per game over the last 5. I’m scared about his 15.5 point prop, so I’m staying away. Whether he struggles with scoring or not, I believe his assists numbers will stay the same, and on a bad shooting night, could be increased. Give me the over and let’s fucking ride. 

Nikola Jokic O 19.5 Points

• Folks, it’s Taco mothafuckin’ Tuesday. This free taco play is 5 points lower than his original average. I am a little nervous about this play, considering he only scored 18 vs Toronto last week and they play them tonight on the road. However, he’s had 30 plus in his last 2 games. I’m going to take it because it’s free points, but I won’t be surprised if the fraudulent center somehow fucks this up. Please Jokic, it’s Taco Tuesday man. Bring us the coin. 

Chris Paul O 4.5 Rebounds

• How can someone of Chris Paul’s size grab so many rebounds against the Goliath Bucks? Great question. To be honest, I have no fucking clue how he rebounds so much. However, I am very confident in this play tonight. He grabbed 6 last game vs. the Bucks and has averaged 5-6 a game over the last 8 games. Chris has been piling up the assists and even hitting the over on his scoring recently. I expect him to be aggressive tonight and grab 5 boards vs the Bucks. Please CP3 all we need is 5!!!!

Jarred Vanderbilt O 1 Steal

• Well, well, well… what do we have here?? Tommy Smokes’ favorite basketball player currently. I don’t think people understand the efficiency that Vanderbilt has on a nightly basis. He could potentially single handedly win a championship for the Lakers. He can’t score for shit, but man does he fly around like a fucking chicken with his head cut off. He’s had a combined 7 steals over the last 3 games played vs the Pelicans. It’s been almost 8 games since he hasn’t had at least 1 steal! I don’t care if we push this bet, but I think he goes over this tonight. Doesn’t underestimate Jarred Vanderbilt, our modern day Michael Jordan. 

Malik Beasley U 16.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists

• I’m not even going to begin to explain how much money I’ve lost on this bum ass shooter. Do we even call him a shooter anymore? He’s gone 7-28 from deep in his last 5 games… HOLY SHIT!!! This guy is cheeks!!! With Russell back in the lineup, his minutes have decreased from 30 plus to under 25. Again, with Russell back, and role players such as Rui, Reaves, and Vanderbilt coming up big over the last 5 games, there’s absolutely no way that he’ll be in position to pass the ball or rebound. He’s gone under this prop in 8/L10 and had a 15 PRA at home vs the Pelicans. Oh, I almost forgot, this dude sucks on the road. Hammer the under.

Paolo Banchero O 21.5 Points

• The undisputed best rookie we’ve seen in quite some time, other than J-DUB of course. He averages a little over this line of 21.5, but struggled to score against a thrilling win vs Miami last weekend grabbing 17 points. However, he’s been on a tear this March making a last minute push to prove why he’s Rookie of the Year. In March, that includes performances of 26, 26, and 31 over 6 games this month. They’re playing San Antonio tonight, must I say much more? With their athletic forwards Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan listed as OUT for tonight, I see him soaring over this point spread with a huge game. He’s been shooting an average of 2.5 more shots this month, which is something I always love to see. The more shots, the more chances. Hammer the over. 

Darius Garland O 25.5 Points

• Last but not least, we move on over to the very first team that Kyrie Irving destroyed, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They will be without Donovan Mitchell AND Jarrett Allen tonight. This alone has me salivating over this prop. The game should be competitive with those injuries and with a spread set out as -7.5 I don’t see his minutes changing at all. With Mitchell and Allen off the court this year, Garland owns a 30.3% usage rate and nets 26.0 points per 36 minutes, according to CourtIQ. That’s a usage-rate bump of 3.2 percentage points. I have him projected to score 26 tonight, which barely covers this line, but I could see him dropping 30 just as easily. Cleveland, this is for you.