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NFL Week 17 Mortal Locks of Eternity
The dwindling final days of the NFL season are slowly cascading upon us. For fantasy purposes, it’s championship weekend, and depending on how things play out it could be the last meaningful regular season football for some teams. Hopefully we get some good games and end the 2023 season with a BANG. Let’s mortal lock baby.
Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Miami
- Both of these teams are coming off big wins last weekend, so I’m not sure who qualifies for the letdown spot. I simply think the Ravens are better than Miami and Lamar could all-but lock up the MVP award with a big performance. It’s gonna be a close game, hopefully the Ravens can keep Tyreek bottled up for a little.
Houston -4.5 vs. Tennessee
- The return of the prodigal son CJ Stroud is here. Will Levis got hurt recently so I don’t know what the Tits will be leaning on today. Derrick Henry always goes nuclear against the Texans but are those days behind him? For my sake I hope so because I’ll be facing him in the AEFL championship this afternoon.
San Francisco -14 @ Washington
- This line couldn’t be high enough. San Francisco revenge game is in full force, I bet they beat the fuck out of these guys today. Sam Howell has been yanked in and out of the starting lineup all week for some reason. They’re treating him like a dirty hooker and it’s unacceptable- but I shouldn’t expect any less from that disgusting franchise.
Arizona +12.5 @ Philadelphia
- I NEED Kyler Murray’s midget ass and the Cardinals to come through big time today. Dallas can take the 2 seed and actually host a playoff game if Philly drops one of the last 2. I have absolutely no faith that the New Jersey Giants will get it done so this burden rests on K1’s tiny shoulders. Will he come through? My money is saying YES.
Minnesota -1.5 vs. Green Bay
- The Vikings are reeling right now amidst ANOTHER QB change. They’re going back to Jaren Hall now after he got knocked out of 1 drive earlier in the season. No idea if he’s good or not but Nick Mullens was certainly not very good. I’ll be rooting for the purple people eaters though, fuck Green Bay.
For one of the last times this year, let’s have a regular season Sunday. It’s always a bittersweet time of year, there’s only a finite amount of NFL football we get to experience in our lives and I’m always making the MOST of it.
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Oklahoma Blows the Alamo Bowl to Arizona
2023 is officially not the year to remember the Alamo. The Oklahoma Sooners squared off against the Arizona Wildcats in San Antonio for a Big 12 vs. Pac 12 (RIP) shoot out.
This was kind of a momentus day in OU football history: it was the official debut of 5 star freshman QB Jackson Arnold. The gatorade player of the year had high expectations coming in and I could tell on Twitter OU fans were ready to explode. What we got was…. a lot of bad mixed in with a lot of good. Arnold had 4 total turnovers (3 picks and 1 fumble) which is obviously not something you wanna see and gave the Twitter trolls a full clip of ammo for now. However amidst all the turnovers and goofy freshman plays you could see the traits that made this kid a top recruit coming out of HS. He’s got a big arm and a big frame which was on display at times last night.
That was the first deep ball all season that wasn’t severely underthrown. No digs at DG because he did a lot of good things for OU the last 2 years, but he clearly didn’t have a robo arm like that attached to his shoulder. Maybe I’m just sipping on copium but I even with the loss and disasters yesterday I left feeling very encouraged about the Jackson Arnold era at OU. Hopefully this game doesn’t shatter his confidence or anything- it shouldn’t because bowl games are completely fucking meaningless and this basically became a backyard football game after a quarter or two.
My biggest concerns going into next year are the OL and the defense. I wish I was wrong but our defense was kinda fraudulent all year, and that’s extra concerning since that’s BV’s specialty. Most of our promising talent is young and haven’t played much yet which gives me hope, but we’re gonna need that unit to be a LOT stronger in our first year in the SEC. The defensive line generated 0 pressure all season without a heavy blitz and that’s a recipe for disaster. Even when we did get free rushers like a few times in this game, a good quarterback is gonna read that and hit a wide open man in stride with the backend so exposed (pause). We’ve got some dawgs coming in but a DL full of freshman isn’t gonna scare anybody. Gonna need the in house dudes to really develop this offseason.
The other side of our trenches is a really scary situation. Our cornerstone OL guy Cayden Green cowardly went into the transfer portal to head back to Mizzou. I fucking hate Missouri and wish Hell upon that program and I hope we beat the absolute fuck outta them next year. Anyways, we’re basically not returning anybody who started for us this season so that’s just great. Our OL coach BB is really damn good but that’s kinda the only silver lining on that front. Hopefully the portal guys we bring in are worth a fuck.
Overall I’d say 10-3 was a succesful season. Going into the year if you had told me that’d be our record I’d have been pretty excited. It’s only disappointing because of how much meat we left on the bone with those scrub games against OSU and Kansas. This season had big 12 championship potential but we couldn’t quite get there. Oh well, it’s time to take our nuts to the SEC. So long Big 12, I’d like to say I’ll miss you but you did us so fucking dirty at times this year that it’s honestly good riddance now. I can’t imagine that conference being very exciting going forward. Thanks for the memories I guess (14x big 12 champs).
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NFL Saturday Best Picks
We’re officially in the time of year when we’re blessed with NFL football on Saturdays. I’m not well versed enough in the trenches of college football to throw my money on the Cotton Candy Bowl or whatever meaningless games are on right now so I’ll be sticking to the big leagues. Let’s see if I can continue the heater I officially started on MNF this week.
Pittsburgh MONEYLINE (+120) vs. Cincinnati
- Is today the day the Jake Browning Cindarella story comes to an end? My money is on yes. JaMarr Chase has been ruled OUT and that’s never a good sign for a backup QB. They can tread water for a while but eventually the sky will fall- I don’t trust him on the road in Pittsburg, despite all their QB issues as well.
Mason Rudolph U190.5 Passing Yards
- This line is very low but I have no choice. The Steelers are likely going to pound the rock with awful Najee Harris and good Jaylen Warren. Their offense has been an abomination to the sport for a while now and I have no doubt watching it today will make me wanna claw my eyes out. The only thing I can trust is that Mason Rudolph is ASS.
Bills -12.5 vs. LA Chargers
- As much as I do NOT trust the Buffalo Bills, it’d be very hard to fuck this one up. They managed to crush my Cowboys last week and I’ll be pissed if they can’t follow that up against the Chargers. LA is essentially begging to lose and completely rolled over against the Raiders, no reason to turn it around now. The only thing that can fuck me here is if the new coach boost cashes in once again.
James Cook O71.5 Rushing Yards
- James Cook has been on a heater recently and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue today. If Buffalo doesn’t completely shit the bed they should be able to jump out to an early lead and lean on James Cook for most of this game. I’d like to fade him coming off a career game last week but the Chargers are simply too bad.
Buffalo Defense to Score a TD (+500)
- Easton Stick loved scoring touchdowns for the Raiders last week and I’m throwing in this juicy odds bet praying he does it once again. I’m also starting the Bills D/ST in the fantasy semis so it’d be a double W to see them cash in today. God willing, I’ll be a very happy man come 11PM ET.
I wish the games didn’t suck today but I’m not going to complain about some Saturday NFL. Arkansas Sate vs. Northern Illinois is on my TV until 4 PM and literally anything could be better than this. Praying these terrible teams can at least provide us some hilarious chaos tonight.
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Monday Night Football Best Bets
After a painful Sunday due to my disappointing Dallas Cowboys I’m looking to bounce back. There’s no way I’ll emotionally recover until our next victory but we can ignore mental illness in favor of making money. Today has officially been a declared a ‘Makin Money Monday’ by me and I’m not gonna let it go to waste.
Seahawks MONEYLINE (+198) vs. Eagles
- Because the Cowboys lost yesterday I am even more confident Seattle is gonna steal this one. Philly only needs this in terms of the 1 seed but will still control their own destiny with a loss. Jalen Hurts also has some mysterious flu so I’m not even sure if he’s playing and if he does he won’t be 100%. I’m betting he got sick from sniffing Jason Kelce’s ass on so many tush push’s this year.
Tyler Lockett O49.5 Receiving Yards
- The Eagles secondary is softer than swiss cheese. Seattle has a potent passing attack and Tyler Lockett will no doubt do his annoying little shit where he gets wide open and falls down before ever taking a hit. He somehow always comes through at the most inconvenient time for the other time. A classic pro’s pro.
DK Metcalf O63.5 Receiving Yards
- Take everything I said about Lockett and apply it here minus the pro’s pro part. DK is an absolute monster roid freak who is capable of going the distance on any given play. Against Dallas he cashed this yardage prop in 1 play- I’ll be hopiong for a few more big ones tonight against the dirty birds.
Jalen Hurts 1st TD Scorer (+470)
- He’s favore to get an any time touchdown so I might as well just take him first. If they get inside the 2 yard line on their first posession then there’s a high likelyhook of this happening. The ultimate TD vulture will more than likely find the end zone at some point tonight, just hope it only happens once and it happens first.
Those who prayed on my downfall this weekend succeeded. It’s up to me to not let them succeed again. Lots of monday to be made on the first ever edition of “Makin Money Monday.”
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Cowboys Get Whomped by Buffalo in front of America
It’s a sad day it’s a bad day. America’s favorite team got shredded like wet paper in front of America this Sunday afternoon and for the 4th time this season my week is ruined. Let’s recap what happened to create one of the darkest days in American history.
Looking back, this game was basically over from the beginning. Buffalo came out the gates running down our throats and that continued for 4 straight quarters. I knew our run defense was suspect, but this is as bad a performance as I can remember in our life time. James Cook turned into OJ Simpson tonight and went for over 200 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. I’m pretty sure Josh Allen finished the game with less than 100 passing yards and they still beat us 31-10. The narrative that we can’t beat good teams on the road lives on and it’s honestly hard to argue against at this point. I don’t know what the problem is there but now that we’re facing a super bowl path that includes 3 straight road games I don’t love our chances. Bills Mafia must’ve been living rent free in our heads all week.
The offense didn’t exactly lend a helping hand to the defense today. You’re not gonna win many games only scoring 10 points, and 7 of those were on a make-a-wish garbage time drive at the end. Dak wasn’t great, OL sucked, and it sure seemed like our receivers weren’t creating much separation. I don’t really point the finger at anyone in particular, everyone gets an F today. Mid McCarthy called a bad game too with overly-conservative routes and goofy third down decisions. It’s hard to get in a rhythm when you’re barely on the field so I can attribute some of our failures to that. We clearly looked out of sync all game.
The way the first half unfolded was incredibly frustrating. We handed Buffalo 14 points on two straight drives after consecutive roughing the passer/punter penalties. Then the zebras missed a Stefon Diggs fumble that would’ve given Dallas the ball back at a critical time. It was just one of those halves where nothing goes your way. With how bad we looked, it’s far from a guarantee that we would’ve made it a game anyway, but you can’t help but wonder what could’ve been if the offense had found some kind of footing early. Regardless, it was a classic Cowboys shoot themselves in the foot game early.
I bet the Eagles lose tomorrow and we’ll slowly realize how big of a blown opportunity this was for the division. My confidence level against the Dolphins has also plummeted after watching our leaky run defense this afternoon. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane are gonna be hosting a full on state-championship track meet against us next week. Our third straight 12-5 season is imminent. I shouldn’t be complaining about that but if we flame out in the playoffs again it’s just not a good look. This is about as talented as you can get in the NFL but we still can’t compete with the 49ers, who somehow look unbeatable again. Dak also probably lost the MVP to Purdy this week after another 4 TD performance from that fraud motherfucker. I don’t really care about the MVP but it would’ve been nice to have the Dak haters/doubters off my back forever. Oh well, I’m used to the painful world of super-scrutiny at this point.
Cut us some slack, we were all sick! Still riding with DemBoyz, even when I’m #sad.
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Monday Night Football Double Header Pick-a-palooza
The only redeeming quality about this Monday is that we get not 1 but TWO Monday Night Football games to make us forget about the previous 10 hours of hell. I wouldn’t say any primetime games featuring the Giants and Titans are great but we have come to accept that MNF and TNF are Roger Goodell’s way of face fucking the entire football community in retribution for the hate he gets. Jokes on you Roger, I’m more than willing to stuff my face with beers and burn my wallet with picks that will predictably flame out. Every. Single. Week.
Tennessee Tits +13.5 @ Miami
- I’m sorry, 13.5 is just too many points for a primetime game. I’m sure if this was a 12 PM Sunday game the Dolphins would have no problem blowing the doors right off the Tits but when the whole world is watching, we’ll never get exciting touchdowns. Maybe Will Levis will surprise us and throw a couple “fuck it” balls just to tickle us a little bit.
Green Bay -5.5 @ New Jersey Giants
- Even though it’s a home game in the Meadowlands, I can’t believe the Packers aren’t favored here. Jordan Love has lowkey been really good the last few weeks and I have no idea why we’d expect that to stop against New York of all times. Remember that thing I said about not blowing teams out on primetime before? Well that theory goes out the window when the opposing team is starting Tommy Devito. This line could have been Packers -25 and I still would’ve hammered it. Jordan Love might wanna go into hiding for a few weeks after this though, not sure how the Italian mob will react to one of their own getting skull-fucked in front of the entire country (Shoutout the Devito family).
Tyreek Hill O111.5 Receiving Yards
- This line is just disgustingly high. Rarely do a WRs yardage props even crack 90 but this midget motherfucker has us gambling on him to crack the century mark and then some. There’s no way you’re going to catch me fading the father of the year on any given day though so I guess we have to ride with the over.
DeAndre Hopkins O54.5 Receiving Yards
- This one is pretty simple: I’m playing against DHop in fantasy in a must-win game so you can count on him to perform quite well. Number one rule of gambling is always hedge your emotional happiness.
Jayden Reed Any Time TD Scorer (+210)
- I really just want to root for someone to get in the endzone and I Reed honestly has the best combination of opportunity + odds tonight. Turns out FanDuel very much expects Tyreek Hill and DeVon Achance to find the end zone so no point in picking one of them. This will be the only time ever I want a Packers WR to score.
Green Bay Defense Any Time TD Scorer (+650)
- When you’re playing against Tommy DeVito you have to be prepared for anything. We’re not exactly sure what he has in store for us but we to build up the mental fortitude so he doesn’t send us into a convulsive shock. Fading the Giants offense is one of life’s greatest treasures and we can’t let this opportunity go to waste.
After reviewing all of these picks I have even less confidence than before but fuck it, we ride. I didn’t know Tommy DeVito’s agent looked like that and now I kind of want to bet the Giants. Oh well, such is life. A Wise man once told me to NEVER bet the Giants.
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Cowboys Dominate Eagles on SNF
Cry Eagles Cry Baby!!! Tonight was our get back game against the trashiest and most annoying fanbase in the entire NFL. There’s nothing I love more than watching Nick Sirianni’s stupid fucking face pout on the sideline. It was nice to get our lick back on National TV after the bullshit that ensued a month ago when the Eagles escaped us by mere inches. Those frauds couldn’t hide from us forever…
Dak Prescott may or may not have put himself at the top of the MVP race tonight. I’d say he played a B to B+ game and managed to drop 30+ on the top seed in the NFC but didn’t “light it up.” If he had pulled 300+ yards and 3 TDs out of his ass I think we could confidently start placing some wagers on him. I’m sure the goal post will keep moving though after the national media started begging him to “beat a good team.” Now we’re start docking him for style points because he didn’t put on a fucking Sunday Night Spectacle. Whatever, I don’t even care if he wins the MVP, I just want him to finally get some damn respect as one of the top QBs in this game and has been for several years. Real ball knowers like me get it.
Major shoutout to our defense tonight. I had my hands in my pockets ready to pull out the fraud card because we had been getting diced up by any QB with a pulse, but they stood on ten toes tonight. Philly did move the ball decently well but we forced turnovers at critical times when they got in our territory. It’s kind of hilarious that their 3 most important guys (Hurts, Devonta, and AJB) ALL fumbled at the worst time. I’m glad we were able to force those turnovers (like we always do) but at some point we need to start getting some fucking stops. It’d be nice to add a few more sacks to the stat sheet as well. Regardless, I’m proud of the boys and no way am I gonna criticize them for not giving up a single offensive touchdown to one of the best teams in the league. Their lone touchdown came on Dak’s worst play in 2 months where he dropped the ball right into Jalen Carter’s lap. Oh well, at least he was good the other 90% of the game, I hope that’s good enough now.
It sucks that this game might not end up meaing much. The Eagles still control their own destiny and we don’t. Their schedule finally lightens up after they SCRAPED by the hair on their chinny chin-chins against the Bills and Chiefs. They should have lost both of those fucking games but of course survived on some bullshit. I’ll never forgive Marquez Valdez-Scantling for that dropped TD. Our best chance is them blowing a game against Seattle next week. Maybe Geno will drop in another top 5 performance out of nowhere? It’d sure be nice if he did that to more teams than us. If he can’t get it done I have little faith that Tommy Devito will figure it out in two tries. We’ll need all of Italy to show out in full force if we’re gonna have a chance there.
Regardless of what happens, I think we proved we’re better than Philly tonight. Our QB is flat out better and we’ve been dominating teams all season. That Cardinals loss will haunt me forever, still no idea how we blew that shit but we need to keep this up. If we can finish the season strong I like our odds against anybody except San Francisco in the playoffs. We literally cannot beat them but everybody else is fair game. We Dem Boyz forever, I’m ready to have my heart broken again.
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Monday Night Football Best Bets
I’m absolutely reeling from a piss-poor performance yesterday. Turns out my strategy of picking and choosing which home dawgs make sense and which don’t is actually not an effective gambling methodology. Nevertheless, I am here to redeem myself and chase my losses with the Passtronaught- let’s fly.
Vikings -3 vs. Bears
- I already picked this game and gave an explanation yesterday so I’m not running it back. Passtronaught to the moon.
Alexander Mattison any time TD scorer (+175)
- Tonight I’m implementing a “fade my fantasy team” philosophy. I’m playing against Mattison and it will absolutely break my back if he finds his way into the endzone AKA it’s definitely going to happen. My luck is down the pisser so I’m quite confidt in this one. At least my misery will make me money.
Josh Dobbs any time TD scorer (+200)
- I have TJ Hockenson in fantasy and I REALLY need him to come through. YOu know what that means? No red zone targets and no chance at a TD. I’m sure Mr. Dobbs will find a way to slither into the end zone and vulture a touchdown from somebody important tonight. He’s very good at that.
TJ Hockenson U65.5 Receiving Yards
- People who can read the above paragraph know exactly why I’m hammering this tonight. Fade my fantasy team = fade TJ Hockenson. I’ll consider changing my mind on this one if Ed Werder tweets that he’s on another snap count. That’ll guarantee us a HockGOAT Nuke game tonight.
That’s it. I’m fading myself tonight. That’s an age-old strategy that has yet to fail in the history of mankind. Emotionally hedging my own happiness is the only way to go about life these days. Bet on yourself kids.
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NFL Week 12 Perfect Picks
Thanksgiving treated us well with a 2-1 day. I was a fool to think Geno Smith would be able to not suck on a national TV game. The 9ers are back to being juggernaughts which sucks for me personally. I can’t stand Brock Purdy or that overloaded ass team, I hope they go on another losing streak. At least Dallas took care of business against the Commies with another 4th quarter avalanche. Daron Bland is also the new pick-6 king in NFL history which was an epic Thanksgiving moment. Let’s see if we can nail 6 picks in his honor.
Arizona Cardinals ML (+126) vs. Rams
- With Kyler Murray back this seems like decent value. The Rams might as well give up on the season since neither of these teams have a real playoff shot. Home dawgs are always fun to ride with- let’s hope K1’s feet can reach the pedals and he doesn’t crash the car.
Bills ML (+130) @ Philly
- I guess I woke up with massive balls today. At this point I just have to continue betting against Philly until it actually cashes. Everyone is hopping off the Buffalo bandwagon which means it’s the perfect time for me to claim my spot. Always buy the dip when it comes to good NFL teams. The Bills/Josh Allen are a rollercoaster and have been for years- but you catch them on the right spot and they’re capable of beating anybody.
Baltimore Ravens -3 @ Chargers
- Now I’m picking and choosing which home dawgs I want to ride with. The Chargers just can’t help but fuck everything up and I need Lamar to have a great game anyways. Ravens Flock let’s fly
Houston ML (+104) vs. Jacksonville
- Fuck it, I’m back on the home dawgs. I started out the season nailing every Jacksonville pick and now I can’t touch them with a 10 foot pole. I was very proud of this same pick earlier in the season when everyone thought the Texans were trash. Stroud is very good but will inevitably have some rookie moments over the end of the season, it just happens. Hopefully he just waits one more week before making that happen.
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. Chicago
- I’m a big Vikings guy, always have been. There’s no better combination thatn the Passtronaught on Primetime. I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplays Justin Fields in front of everyone. I hope they still haven’t taught him the playbook, I think he’s better when he’s just running around hooping. Just let him use that giant nerd space brain to find open guys on the run and just pull magic plays out of his ass. That’s Vikings football.
I am at about 15% confidence in these picks today. The slate is honestly kind of dogshit and I feel like I was being forced to bet on bad teams. There’s nothing more disgusting than that. I have a bad feeling about this.
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Thanksgiving Picks of the Century
It’s the best day of year. I for one am thankful for football, gambling, and most of all the Dallas Cowboys. America realizes what’s good for the world is watching the Boys in Silver and Blue every Thanksgiving so we can watch the best team in the world. Let’s make this Thanksgiving even better by making a shit ton of money to pay for all the food we’re gonna over-consume today.
Green Bay Packers +8.5 @ Detroit
- This pick makes me sick to my stomach. I’ve been a big Lions fans this season and for the most part they’ve been reliable on a weekly basis. I just think 8.5 points might be too much to swallow for a division rival on this day (wait until my next pick). Crazy shit happens on Thanksgiving and Green Bay has done enough to be considered frisky this year. We’ll see if Goff has enough in his bag to cover a larger spread.
Cowboys -13.5 vs. Commanders
- Ignore everything I just said about too many points to swallow for a divisional rival on Thanksgiving. This line has moved from 11 to 13.5 over the last few days and it makes sense. Dallas beats the piss out of bad teams and have covered double-digit spreads each of the last two weeks. The problem is I don’t fully know if Washington qualifies as a bad team. The Howelliban air raids poor defenses seemingly every week. We’ll have to see if DB the DB has enough firepower to fight back against the Commie takeover.
Seahawks +7 vs. 49ers
- I’m sorry, there’s no way I’m taking Brock Purdy as a 7 point road favorite. Fuck Brock Purdy and his inflated ass stats, I can’t believe this guy is getting MVP discourse. I’m also picking Seattle hoping and praying Geno Smith is gonna play, he’s questionable as of right now. I’m just gonna need somebody on that defense to turn Brock Purdy into a pumpkin for this lovely Thanksgiving night.
Can I go 3 for 3 on Turkey Day 2023? I guess we’ll find out after 8 hours of free football. I’ll be stuffing my face with Turkey, potatoes, and Ws after a long hard day of sitting in front of my TV. Let’s get it.
The Armchair Experts 