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NFL Sunday Week 11 Best Bets
I’m back. If we pretend last weekend did not happen then I’ve been having a pretty good season so far. I’m too lazy to go back and look what my actual record will be but in my head I’m shooting around 60%. It also turns out that TJ Hockenson was indeed NOT on a snap count last week. Ed Werder can go fuck himself right to hell- I lost in fantasy and multiple picks last week because of that dumbass report.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ Panthers
- Yet another major spread for the Boys in Blue but this one honestly seems kind of low? They were 17.5 point favorites last week against the Giants and that was the lock of the century. The Panthers have to be considered at least as bad as them, and our defense should take advantage of a rookie QB who’s really struggling right now. Also send Ceedee Lamb to the moon again.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ Cleveland
- The Steelers defense against DTR? I’ll take that any day of the week. Deshaun Weinstein is out for the season so I’m hoping for a little implosion this week. He wasn’t very good anyway so I guess the dropoff won’t be massive but DTR has been BAD in his limited action so far.
Detroit -7.5 vs. Chicago
- MCDC and the Lions have been taking care of business this year, I can’t believe it. As long as the return of Justin Fields doesn’t fuck me here with a couple bullshit runs then I remain confident. Goff is calling for aid and Amon-Ra shall answer. Let’s get this bread.
Minnesota Vikings +3 @ Denver
- I think we need to sloowwwwww down on the Denver Broncos respect here. Russel Wilson still isn’t good and I’m not gonna start believing in them now. The Passtronaught is here to take names and kick ass and I don’t see him stopping against the Mile-High mid defense. Unfortunately JJettas is still out for now but as long as Dobbs keeps targeting HockGOAT 10 times a game (fuck you Ed Werder) we’ll be A-Okay.
Kansas City -2.5 vs. Philly
- Fuck Philly, fuck em all. There’s no way I’ll ever bet on them to win shit. This Super Bowl rematch is gonna need to go KC’s way for Dallas to get back in the division race. The gaunlet is approaching and every day I’m praying on the Eagle’s downfall.
No props today. After the Ed Werder fiasco I’ll never trust another souless coward who works for ESPN. I don’t know whose healthy or whose playing or how many snaps. It’s all bullshit and they can suck my balls. If karma never forgets an address then it should be mailing be a betslip with 5 of these picks cashing on Tuesday morning. Let’s ride.
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Extremely Last Minute TNF Picks
I’m extremely late to getting this out but since I’m a man of character I refuse to start watching the game until this blog is up. Everyone should know that I’m piggy-backing the best running back in the league (Lamar Jackson) tonight. I would also highly encourage everyone to put an anytime TD scorer bet on Gus Edwards. It’s quite impressive how he manages to do absolutely nothing on every drive until they get inside the 5 yard line. As a Lamar Jackson fantasy owner it’s easily my least favorite storyline of the entire NFL season.
Ravens -3.5
Gust Edwards anytime TD
Ain’t no glammor tonight fellas. This is a blue collar, bring your lunch pale type of blog night.
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NFL Week 10 Super Locks
It’s been a good last few weeks for me gambling wise. I’m trying to ride the positive momentum from lady luck combined with the Sooners finally catching a W yesterday. Could I potentiCincally redeem myself after last weeks historically bad sports weekend for me? I can’t think of a better time to go undefeated than November 12th 2023, let’s begin.
Jacksonville Jaguards MONEYLINE (+148) vs. 49ers
- FUCK Brock Purdy and DEATH to the 49ers. I hope these scumbags go on to lose 4 in a row this afternoon. Kyle Shanahan coming off a bye feels like it gives them an advantage but I don’t care. This is a heart over head pick and the ML is strong enough to make me willing to die on this hill.
Cincinnatti Bengals -5.5 vs. Houston Texans
- The rules of the NFL in 2023 are simple. If a team looks great the week before, fade the fuck out of them the following week. CJ Stroud put on a performance for the ages last week so I’m counting on an absolute dud in week 10. It doesn’t make any sense but that’s just how it is now. Bengals continue their climb back to being good. A shootout would be a lot of fun though.
Detroit Lions -2.5 @ Chargers
- Normally I’d be terrified of the Lions as road favorites. Then I remembered my apartment complex has a greater population than Chargers fans in the world so no Home Field Advantage. My trust in Jared Goff also doubles when he’s playing in a dome. Can the Lions stay in No. 1 seed contention?
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Cleveland
- Baltimore is the hottest team in the league right now. Lamar is firmly in the MVP contention and somehow despite all the injuries their defense has been top tier. Hopefully Deshaun Weinstein will suck ass tonight and we get another blowout win for the good guys.
New Orleans Saints -2.5 @ Minnesota
- I really hate to do this but I have to follow my principles. Josh Dobbs came in and did the impossible last week somehow just bullshitting all over the field. I don’t know if he’ll be able to capture that same magic in his second week. I saw on Twitter he didn’t even know where the locker room was in his home stadium so basically if he wins today the NFL isn’t even a real sport. Absolutely no clue what the Passtronaught has in store for us today.
TJ Hockenson U43.5 Receiving Yards
- Yet again I hate to fade the sweet prince HockGOAT. He’s been so good all year but apparently he’s on a snap count today and will only play “critical downs.” I have no idea what that means but I just have to assume he ain’t gonna be seeing a lot of volume today. Maybe he breaks off a big catch and run and I’ll be sad but I’m trying to be high IQ today.
Those are most of the picks I like today. As a homer I want to take Cowboys -17.5 so fucking bad but that’s an absurdly large line. Fading my TOTY in the Vikings makes me sick but it must be done. Maybe Josh Dobbs is just the greatest QB ever though and prove me an idiot.
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Thursday Night Football Best Bets
Thursday Night Football is just the fucking worst. The Bears and the Panthers?? Are you fucking SERIOUS? The Bears have been on my TV during primetime too many times this season. Football is arguably the best thing in the entire world and they do their damndest to make me hate it. Justin Fields still isn’t cleared so we don’t even have one exciting run to look forward to sandwiched in between 4 quarters of ass. Maybe Tyson Bagel will at least throw some hilarious interceptions tonight to keep the viewers occupied. Let’s look at some disgusting bets that I’ll hate myself for placing.
Tyson Bagent to throw an interception (-166)
- Why not right? I’m honestly surprised the odds aren’t worse on this which is why I’m willing to jump on it. It will be too painful to root for good things to happen in this game so we all must pivot and root for the bad. Don’t let me down Tyson!
Bryce Young to also throw an interception (-140)
- I believed in Bryce coming out of college but it’s not looking good this season. I’m not writing him off by any means because he’s in a shit situation but that means interceptions are a’comin. He threw 2 pick-sixes last week so I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t follow that up with another masterclass.
Chuba Hubbard O40.5 rushing yards (-110)
- I’m grasping for fucking straws here. I’m assuming Frank Reich will try to keep it on the ground after Bryce’s mishaps last week so this is purely a volume play. I don’t think Chuba is all that good and neither is the Panther’s OL or play calling. That said we might as well just have something to root for here.
Most Rushing + Receiving Yards of the Game: Adam Thielen (+430) and DJ Moore (+650)
- I’m not 100% sure why the odds are so juiced on these two, I guess because only one player can with this? Regardless it makes me feel comfortable taking the top 2 WRs in this matchup. If by some miracle someone’s passing attack gets going it almost has to be through one of these two cats. Hopefully if one of them actually cashes it will almost pay for all the other bets I’m prepared to lose tonight (possible DJ Moore revenge game as well).
Chicago Bears -3 (-120) vs. Carolina
- Nobody who I pick I’m going to feel absolutely shitty about it. I’m honeslty not sure the Bears can be trusted to beat anyone by 3 points, even the worse team in the league. As I’m writing this I’m realizing I really want to change my pick to the Panthers. I’m not going to do that because I ain’t no coward but fuck this is an awful pick. Please do not tail me on this one, this is truly embarassing from me. Pretty much praying on another multi pick-6 game from the rookie Bryce Young to put points on the board tonight. Bear Down Chicago let’s do this.
This is one of those Thursday games where you should feel comfortable taking the wife out to dinner or something. Maybe spend some time with your kids or start a project you’ve always wanted to work on. Only the true sickos are gonna sit and focus on this game for 3+ hours. Count me in as one of those Sickos, let’s do this.
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NFL Week 9 Piping Hot Locks
I’m still recovering from post-Bedlam depresssion, so today I’m forcing myself one limb at a time to find the courage to make these picks. It’s with a heavy heart that I must deliver 5-0 at minimum. This is my flu game, my mona lisa, my game 1 of the 2018 Finals.
LA Rams +3.5 @ Green Bay Packers
- Jordan Love and the Packers are trash. I get the game is in Lambeau but that’s not enough right now to convince me they’re gonna win. I love taking the Rams after last week’s shit pumping, we’ve seen over and over how the bounce back games work. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will carry me to victory.
Raiders -1.5 vs. NYG
- I feel like this is kind of a square play but I’m making it anyway. Raiders made BIG changes this week by FINALLY getting rid of Josh McDaniels and benching Jimmy G. Sometimes teams get a little boost for 1-2 games after major shakeups so that’s pretty much what I’m counting on. Hopefully AOC actually takes his checkdowns instead of launching interceptions down the field for no reason. I can’t believe I just advocated for checkdowns- that’s how bad Jimmy G has been.
Cincinatti Bengals -2.5 vs. Buffalo
- This one is more or less a pick em in my eyes. A month ago I would’ve hated betting on the Bengals but it’s looking like Joey B is starting to find his groove again. Buffalo has an entire roster full of injured players so I think they’ll be able to move the ball well. Josh Allen has superman potential in pretty much every game he plays but the other side of that coin is a turnover machine. I’m not sure which one will come out in Cincy today but it will likely decide the game.
Chicago Bears +9.5 @ New Orleans
- Putting my faith and money in the Bears? I feel like I should check myself into a psych ward. The truth is I just don’t trust the Saints to cover 9.5 on anyone. I suppose Derek Carr has been slightly better the last 2 weeks but this still isn’t a good football team. Tyson Bagel sucks and could easily wipe me out in just the first half but you never know. Betting on bad teams to cover large spreads isn’t something I’m very fond of. Rooting hard for Da Bears today.
Ravens -6.5 vs. Seattle
- I honestly LOVE Seattle in this game. It just feels so perfect that I have to take the Ravens. They’re maddeningly inconsistent but when they’re on they’re fucking ON. For fantasy and gambling reasons I’m reallllyyy gonna need Lamar to take over this game. He’s got it in his bag but doesn’t always pull it out (that’s what she said).
Ceedee Lamb O78.5 receiving yards
- I normally don’t put any money on Cowboys game because it just multiplies the pain if we lose. However if we’re gonna compete in this game Ceedee Lamb is gonna have to get going early and often. He’s been ballin the last 2 weeks, I’m just hoping McCarthy doesn’t put us back in conservative mode after last week. The Eagles secondary is suspect at best and if Dak can find any time to throw we should be able to tear them up.
Can we go 6-0 on this mountain of sadness? I guess we’ll find out after 12+ hours of commerical free football. I don’t think there’s anything else that can cure my disease of losing. OU set me up for a trifecta of a bad sports weekend, I’m hoping Sunday doesn’t take a turn for the worst.
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Sooners Blow it in Final Bedlam
It’s another sad day and it’s another bad day. The Oklahoma Sooners offically lose the final Bedlam (for now) to little brother OSU in a heartbreaker. It’s our 2nd loss in a row now and 2nd in 3 years to OSU. I have many sad thoughts.
At first it seemed like this game was gonna feature a classic OU defense collapse. The Pokes marched right down the field for 7 just like Kansas last week. I already had several fraudulent texts written and sent out. Eventually they seemed to settle down though, as OSU only ended up with 27. At this point the OU defense is very “bend, don’t break” and turnover reliant. Teams can put up a lot of yards but we’ve managed to stiffen up on 4th downs and take advantage of errant throws. Counting on turnovers isn’t really the most reliable method of defense but it’s good to be opportunistic I guess. Easily the most concerning aspect is the COMPLETE lack of a pass rush. The only time it showed up this year was against Texas which makes 0 sense. Quarterbacks can sit back and write novels in the pocket before we lay a hand on them. I guess we’ll have to revamp our DLine in the portal again because a bunch of incoming freshman aren’t gonna do shit in the SEC.
Even with the defensive problems, the clear culprit of today’s loss was the offense. 24 points just isn’t fucking good enough in modern CFB, period. I know there were some awful calls by the Big 12’s blind officials like the Drake Stoops missed PI, but really that’s just an excuse. We had multiple opportunities to take or extend leads in today’s game and blew it every time. We had Nic Anderson drop a tuddy right before half, Javonte Barnes fumble a direct snap, and our center send the ball right into an unassuming Dillon Gabriel’s shins. Those are losing football plays, and there were way more than what I just listed off the dome. I’ve been a Jeff Lebby defender, but it’s hard to raise my shield today. He is obsessed with throwing lateral passes for no gain. It drives me insane how we refuse to attack over the middle despite how effective it is. I’ve heard rumors we don’t do that because DG can’t see over the line but I’m not sure how true that is. If he really hasn’t discovered a workaround for that handicap after playing the position for 10+ years then we’ve been truly fucked from the start.
Hilariously we really only got a good game from Drake Stoops. The problem is relying on a small white-guy who runs a 4.6 40 probably isn’t the best recipe for an explosive offense. He’s a good player and I give him credit for actually getting open but we all know what the ceiling is there. It sucks that our last play had to be an awful rollout into the boundary where he didn’t even run his route to the sticks. I guess that’s the kinda shit we practice in our 2 minute drills.
Brent Venables isn’t off the hook for his shitty game management either. It’s honestly been a problem since he got here and it needs to get cleaned up ASAP. Letting 40 seconds roll off the clock before half with a chance to get the ball back is cowardly and egregious. Then he blew one of our 3 timeouts at the end of the game because he couldn’t make up his mind whether to go for the 4th or kick the FG. Just take the fucking delay of game man if you’re gonna end up kicking it anyway- that’s some elementary shit and it’s concerning. I also don’t trust his 4th down decision making. We’ve been semi-aggressive recently but I honestly think it’s only cuz our kicker is complete dogshit and he doesn’t have a choice. I’m worried he has a very old-school mentality for several critical decision-making processes that just don’t fly anymore. New age coaches that know what they’re doing will take our lunch money if it keeps up.
We now no longer control our own destiny in the big 12. We set ourselves up perfectly after the Red River Shootout but haven’t looked good at all since. It was great to celebrate that win but we’ve overdone it and that’s why you don’t raise the banner after 6 fucking weeks. A lot of the same issues we faced last year are rearing their ugly heads and it’s fucking disgusting. I’m sick of losing 1 score games and sick of even being in 1 score games in the first place. We have more talent than all these cats (I think) and there’s no excuse for it. It would’ve been sweet to leave the Big 12 with the trophy in Norman where it belongs but that’s looking less and less likely. Even with Texas begging to lose every weekend we can’t take care of our own shit. It’s still Boomer Sooner for life but today this shit sucks.
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Lakers FINALLY Beat Clippers
It feels like it’s been fucking years since I could write that sentence above. It’s ironic, because the Clippers haven’t had playoff success anywhere near Lakers’ level in the Kawhi/PG era but they always win the head to head. Now they are the proud claimers of one James Harden (retarded?)- playoff success is just ahead!
I still can’t wrap my head around how good Lebron James is at basketball. I don’t want this blog post to turn into a big glazing fest but I can already feel it heading that way. He shared the court with Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook- all of whom played WELL and he was still the best player on the court. In year 21. At age 38. Obviously I don’t think he can keep up that pace all season (def not at 42 mins a game) but the fact it’s still in the chamber is impressive. If Father Time ever let that fight go to a decision, Lebron would win in a landslide. Sadly we all know who lands the final knockout blow… but not today.
Can the Lakers win the title this season? I’m not so sure. Much to my dismay it seems like the Nuggets have leveled up from last year. Jokic is just too fucking good right now to pick anyone else. I think not starting in a 2-10 hole will definitely help them and winning games like this plays a big part in tossing that shovel away. Last year they 100% would’ve choked this game in overtime in ridiculous fashion to set themselves up for non-stop media criticism. Thankfully there are self-important media members such as myself keeping that from happening in 2023. You’re welcome Lakers fans.
We’re gonna need a little more from White Chocolate 2.0 going forward. Not sure why Reaves has been quiet to start the season- it could be his haircut. You never know what you’ll get from DLo, TP, Vando, or AD on a nightly basis so we’re back to the hope and pray method. It sucks but we already know the season will come down to Lebron and AD’s health. I’d like to give more cogent analysis but really that’s all their is to it right now. I’ll be recapping a few of their games throughout the season. I also need to get back to making my NBA gambling picks. I miss losing money on NBA spreads that come down to late-game free throws. We are so back baby.
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Texas Rangers Win World Series
I never ever write about baseball because I absolutely fucking hate baseball. It’s so boring, but I guess I can make an exception for the World Series. Finally after 63 long seasons the Texas Rangers have crowned themselves World Series Champs.
I’m not a fan but I can always be happy for a scrappy underdog team that finally breaks through. From a half-paying attention point of view it seems like they hit a lot of home run dingers this post-season. They also somehow never lost a road game? Once again I don’t know shit about baseball but I would’ve guessed there was at least some type of home field advantage. Then again, that’s probably only happened like one time ever and I just look like an idiot who doesn’t know shit about baseball (which I am and I don’t).
One thing that stood out to be this series was that Adolis Garcia is definitely NOT on steroids. Clearly he’s just a gym rat so I just want to pre-end those allegations right now. Also, Nathaniel Lowe’s turtleneck looks stupid so I’m 50% less happy for that guy. I also remember a few month’s ago when Jacob DeGrom got hurt after signing a massive contract. I just know football and basketball and 99.9% of the time if your big free agent acquisition goes down you’re just not winning the title. I guess my clown ass just doesn’t know the game.
Corey Seager now has more Championship Series MVPs than Steph Curry. Great fact.
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NFL Week 8 Mortal Locks
I’ve suffered enough this weekend. OU Football loses in tragic fashion, pretty sure I lost all my Thursday picks, and I struck out at the bars again. The only way to redeem myself is an undefeated Sunday to pick up the pieces. We only can move forward, one step at a time.
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ Green Bay
- Kirk Cousins as a road favorite, what could go wrong? I’m no coward and I’m also a noted Kirko Chains supporter. Nobody look but the Vikings are starting to heat up a little bit. Jordan Love and the Packers suck and there’s no way I’m gonna be pissing down my leg coming into Lambeau today.
Cincinnati Bengals ML (+166) @ San Francisco
- This is my underdog ML bet of the day. Let me be clear: FUCK Brock Purdy. He’s finally started exposing himself (not in a perverted way) the last 2 weeks and I need that to continue today. Ever since the 49ers won their super bowl against Dallas in week 5 they’ve looked a little vulnerable. Sneaky story: they might not be that good playing from behind. If Joe Burrow can channel his innate elite ability to throw it up to Jamarr Chase we’ll be in good shape.
Seahawks -4.5 vs. Browns
- This line is a little high for Seattle but that’s kinda why I like it. Vegas must still have not heard back from Geno so that means we can still believe in him. The sky will fall out from PJ Walker in a big way soon so why not today? Even against Cleveland’s great Defense I think Seattle can put up points and I KNOW that the Browns can’t. Seattle, this is for you.
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 vs. Saints
- I’m not taking Derek Carr as a road favorite. I’m already biting that bullet with Kirk Cousins and there’s no way the Metallica lead singer is gonna make me do it twice. He’ll probably just throw the ball out of bounds all day then scream at his weapons for not catching it. I need a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor today on the other side- don’t like Gardner Minshew throw this game away.
TJ Hockenson O55.5 Receiving Yards
- You could honestly substitute this bet with Jordan Addison as well. With JJ still out, I’m not afraid to take the overs on Viking’s pass catchers. They love to throw the ball, and if they get down early then they’re all likely a smash. I might be a little biased as a HockGOAT fantasy owner but he’s still a really good TE who gets consistent targets. Ride with me HockSquad.
Steelers ML (+116) vs. Jacksonville
- I’ve been absolute nails when it comes to picking Jags games this year. I fade them then ride them then fade them and ride them again. I’m just the Jags dirty little whore I guess. Vegas grabbed me by the face and screamed at me to take the -2.5 this morning. It’s just so obvious that I have to be on the other side. The Steelers suck and it makes no sense and by that logic I put my faith in Kenny Kitten Mittens. Probably gonna need 2+ scoop n scores from TJ Watt today.
I’m really putting my nuts on the line today. I think they’ve been a little too shriveled this past week with cowardly picks but never again. It’s come to my attention that I need to put a little hair on my chest with some grown man under dog selections. Beware Vegas, I ain’t comin no more. I’m here.
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Nuggets Beat Lakers on NBA Opening Night
Cancel the season. The Lakers season is already in the shitter after one game. At least that’s what my moron friends are already telling me in our toxic group chat that only infuriates me. I need better friends and a better NBA franchise to support.
Even with the Laker’s new additions this game felt a lot like the WCF: too much Jokic. I know he went 12-23 but it felt like he made every shot. I guess the Nuggets just hit them at critical times and they’re back breaking every single fucking time. I just can’t stand this fucking team. Get rid of Jamaal Murray, MPJ, KCP- the whole lot of them. One year in and I’m already ready for a new champion.
As for the Lakers? who knows. They made some great offseason additions like Taurean Prince (who alread looked good) and retained nuclear white-boy Austin Reaves. The problem STILL in year 21 is that they are a net negative with Lebron is off the court. They were + points with him on and – points with him off. It’s the story of his career and I just will never understand why his teammates forget how to play basektball when he leaves. Now since he’s an old bastard he’ll apparently be on a “minutes restriction” for 28-30 min a game. I can already tell you right now that’s not gonna work. It hurts seeing him at this stage even though he’s still a top 10 player in the league. It was only a few short years ago when he was still able to dominate and take over games.
Another big story (per usual) was my favorite player “The Big Disappointment” only dropping 17 points. This team will never get back in title contention as long as AD plays like Mickey Mouse. Despite being less physically gifted and talented Jokic tears his ass up every time. I’m holding him accountable and staying on his ass all season long.
Curious to see how it plays out. Despite Lebron being a year older this team should be better than last year. I’m sure Darvin Ham will find a way to goof it up but a whole season without Russell Westbrook will be good for the soul. Cheers to the NBA being back.
The Armchair Experts 